Published:
This Discussion Paper is a background document to the Forest Sector Outlook Study 2020-2040 (FSOS) for the UNECE region (ECE/TIM/SP/51). It provides the details that are summarized in chapter 3 of the main study. It analyses how markets and forests may evolve under different assumptions of economic growth, population growth, and climate change and covers the years 2020-2040, starting with 2017 as the base year for projections. It focuses on how departures from recent patterns of supply and demand – i.e. structural changes – might affect the UNECE region. Modelling these structural changes asks ‘what-if’ questions about specific factors that might influence supply or demand, in the UNECE forest sector, and globally. The analyses compare the outcomes to a business-as-usual, or reference scenario. The ‘what-if’ questions follow suggestions from UNECE member States about critical uncertainties to be faced in the future.